The panel market breaks out, LCD is still the “main course”

“The performance has begun to materialize”,A large buyer said bluntly,”It is enough for panel prices to stay at the current level.”Simultaneously,The stock price rise is related to the expected volume increase of the new display technology Mini/Micro LED next year.

Insiders pointed out that,Although the new display technology has many advantages that LCD cannot match,But the mainstream display technology used in TV, notebooks and other products will still be LCD.Its location is difficult to shake during the year.therefore,The rise and fall of LCD prices is still the strongest factor that disturbs the financial statements of panel manufacturers.In terms of capacity scale, industrial chain integrity, cost, etc.,Compared with LCD, technologies such as QD-OLED, OLED, and Micro-LED are unlikely to have an advantage in the short term.These technologies are positioned in the high-end market,Represents the future development trend,Panel manufacturers need to pay attention.

Rally better than expected

Since June,TV panel prices continue to rise,Especially since the second half of the year, the upward trend has exceeded expectations.Founder Securities’ electronics industry analyst Tao Yinzhi calculated according to the price data released by Qunzhi Consulting in late November,As of December 2020,The price of LCD TV panels under 55 inches has risen by an average of 70% compared with the low point in May this year.The range increase reached a record high.The 65-inch and 75-inch production lines were driven by the ramp-up supply of domestic production lines of 10.5/11 generations.The price increase is not as good as that of products below 55 inches.But the corresponding increases were 34% and 17% respectively.All are expected to be above the profitability level.

According to the price trend chart obtained by a reporter from China Securities Journal from TrendForce,After this round of price increases,The price levels of the three mainstream LCD TV panel sizes of 32-inch, 55-inch, and 65-inch climbed to the price ranges of April 2018, May 2018, and February 2019, respectively.

Several analysts from Qunzhi Consulting told a reporter from China Securities Journal that,The price increase of mobile phone LCD panels is mainly reflected in low-end LCD display screens.The price increase has been around 30% since June.The monitor (display, excluding industrial use) mainstream modules rose by about 15% over the same period.The LCD panel rose by 50% over the same period;Low-end TN technology products of notebooks have increased significantly over the same period.Overall is above 10%,Other mainstream IPS technology products rose by 5%-10%.

Business continues to improve

Since the third quarter,The TV panel market has rebounded sharply,The operating profit margin of panel manufacturers continues to improve.Tao Yinzhi said,In the third quarter, the world’s major panel manufacturers all entered an operating profitability state.Taking into account the lower cost of domestic manufacturers,The operating profit margin of domestic panel manufacturers is expected to lead the industry in the fourth quarter.

Specifically,LG Display achieved profitability in the third quarter after experiencing 6 consecutive quarters of operating losses;Samsung Display has reduced LCD production capacity supply,Overlay the continuous pull of small-size OLED products,From the second quarter, the operating profit margin of the panel improved first;BOE and TCL Huaxing both started to turn positive in their operating profits in the second quarter.

In the first three quarters of this year,TCL Technology’s large-size panels are fully sold and produced,Realized sales area of 20.71 million square meters,A year-on-year increase of 44.9%,Corresponding to realized income of 20.33 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 50.9%;The sales area of small and medium-sized panels was 970,000 square meters,A year-on-year decrease of 3.6%,Corresponding to realized income (including Huaxian) 12.05 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 8.7%.

BOE A achieved operating income of 101.687 billion yuan in the first three quarters,An increase of 18.63% year-on-year,The net profit attributable to the parent was 2.476 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 33.67%.among them,The company achieved 40.8 billion yuan in revenue in the third quarter,A year-on-year increase of 33.04%,Hit a record high;The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.34 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 629.30%.

Looking forward to next year,BOE said,The large size of TV and the stimulus of sports events will continue to drive demand growth.The demand for IT brought by telecommuting and education continues to rise,Will further consume capacity;On the supply side,New capacity is limited,It is expected that the overall panel supply and demand will remain balanced or tightly balanced throughout the year.

LCD has obvious competitive advantages

In the first half of this year, LG Display and Samsung Display successively announced that they would withdraw from the LCD market before the end of the year (plans are delayed).From the product technical route,LCD is a relatively mature display technology,Still have enough vitality.Insiders pointed out that,Its application maturity in the TV market is high,Compared with other display technologies, the cost has obvious competitive advantages.

CITIC Construction Investment believes that,With the shift of LCD panels to mainland China,The LCD panel industry chain is becoming more and more perfect,Upstream materials (liquid crystal materials, polarizers, glass substrates, targets, etc.), midstream processing and manufacturing (cleaning equipment, etching equipment), and subsequent processes (cutting, circuit board, backlight module assembly), etc. have basically completed localized substitution.

Li Yaqin, general manager of Qunzhi Consulting, told a reporter from China Securities Journal,”From the global ranking of large-size LCD panel shipments,After Korean manufacturers adjusted,BOE ranked first,TCL China Star is fourth.After the Korean factory completely withdrew from LCD,By 2022, the proportion of BOE’s production capacity will still increase slightly.Probably accounted for 23%-24% of the world. ”

but,The Korean factory has not completely withdrawn from the TV industry,Instead, he chose a new track.”At present, LG’s white light OLED production costs are still relatively high.Mainly due to the difficulty of large-size evaporation process to improve yield,Second, the loss of organic light-emitting materials is relatively large.Samsung’s QD-OLED technology theoretically shows better performance than white light OLED,But the capital expenditure of the production line is too large,Material depreciation costs are higher,Competitiveness is limited.”Tao Yinzhi said,Display improved solutions around Mini LED backlight,The foundation of the upstream LED industry has matured,However, it is still necessary to wait for the increase in process maturity to drive down the cost.

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